Boeing has confirmed another round of what it hopes may be temporary production cuts to the 787 range.
Boeing obtained 112 orders for 787’s in 2019 and delivered 158.
In October 2019 it announced a cut from 14 per month to 12 – the 14 rate had only be reached the year before.
That change comes into effect around September 2020, but a further cut to 10 per month is due to come into effect by February-March 2021.
Boeing said it hopes to return to 12 per month in around March 2023.
As of December 31, 2019, Boeing has accumulated 1485 orders for the Dreamliner (across all three of its variants). Of those 939 aircraft have already been delivered, leaving 546 Dreamliners to build.
Allowing for 164 deliveries in 2020, 136 in 2021 and then 120 through to end of 2022, 130 in 2023 – they will run out of aircraft to deliver by the end of that year without new orders.
Boeing has a hard sell ahead, to maintain that pace of build it needs to push sales to at least 120 a year every year, or it won’t be looking at 12 a month again, and 10 isn’t going to be viable either, more like 6.
There must come a point when having two production plants has to be questioned – at 10 per month that’s just above the thin line that makes that viable.